Production at Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold project could be pushed back by two years to 2030, as investors wait for the security situation in Balochistan to improve and tensions in the Middle East to ease, Dawn reported.
The conflict in neighbouring Iran, combined with persistent security challenges in Balochistan, has reportedly prompted investors to revisit the project’s original 2028 timeline. Canadian mining company Barrick Mining is expected to resume full-scale development by mid-2027 after completing an internal review, though the company has yet to make an official announcement.
Despite the slowdown, project management has retained all 700 permanent employees and around 2,000 contractual workers at the site, while allowing some third-party service contracts to expire.
Workforce and Site Activity
Project management has retained all 700 permanent employees and around 2,000 contractual workers at the site, while allowing some third-party service contracts to expire. Research, administrative work, and community development projects continue to progress on schedule.
Nearly $1 billion has been invested in the venture to date. The project is assessed as technically viable and remains a strategic priority for both the mining company and the government. External factors could delay development, but the project’s fundamentals are unchanged.
Barrick Chairman John L. Thornton is scheduled to visit Pakistan later this month to attend the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad.
Cost Impact of Delay Under Review
Estimates of the financial impact of a potential delay vary. One assessment puts the cost escalation at $8 billion to $10 billion if work resumes within a year, with further security deterioration or delays exceeding two years potentially rendering the project prohibitively expensive. A proposal has also been made for a consortium of local companies to acquire a minority stake in the project.
An alternative estimate puts the cost increase from delays at around 10 percent, or approximately $450 million to $900 million, with sentiment around the project having improved in recent weeks. Concerns have also been raised that only 30 to 35 percent of the copper-gold output may be processed in Pakistan with the remainder shipped to the operator’s Australian facility, potentially limiting domestic value addition.
Barrick’s Review Timeline
Barrick initiated a formal review of Reko Diq in February 2026, announcing a slowdown in development and extending its assessment period through early 2027. Speaking at the Mining Forum Americas last month, the company’s chief executive did not provide a revised construction timeline, saying security improvements were needed before committing to a full construction schedule.
Barrick Mining holds a 50 percent stake in the project. The remaining half is split equally between the Balochistan provincial government and three Pakistani state-owned entities: Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Government Holdings Private Limited.
Project Costs Rise to $9.1 Billion
Reko Diq is one of Pakistan’s most ambitious infrastructure projects, with estimated Phase 1 investment rising from $4 billion to $5.6 billion. Phase 2 is projected to require another $3.5 billion, taking total capital expenditure to around $9.1 billion, compared with earlier estimates of approximately $7 billion.
Designed as a conventional open-pit mining and processing operation, the project will produce high-grade copper-gold concentrate. Initial capacity is set at 45 million tonnes of ore annually, expected to double to 90 million tonnes following Phase 2.
The mine was initially planned for a 40-year operational life, but an updated feasibility study revised the estimate to 37 years to account for higher throughput. Ongoing exploration and resource development could potentially extend its lifespan to as much as 80 years.
Beyond export earnings and government revenue, Reko Diq is expected to generate 7,500 jobs during peak construction and support around 4,000 permanent positions once operational. Based on long-term commodity price assumptions, projected free cash flow over 37 years is estimated at $74 billion.
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