Pakistan’s water reserves have risen to nearly 11 million acre feet, but the slower filling of Mangla Reservoir is raising concerns about water availability for the Rabi cropping season.
The country’s three major reservoirs were holding 10.970 million acre feet as of August 19, equal to 83.43 percent of their combined storage capacity of 13.149 million acre feet. Tarbela has already reached its maximum conservation level, while Chashma is also close to full capacity.
Mangla, however, was holding 5.105 million acre feet against its total capacity of 7.258 million acre feet. Its storage stood at 70.34 percent, with the water level reaching 1,213.15 feet compared with its maximum level of 1,242 feet.
The slower buildup at Mangla is mainly linked to weaker inflows in the Jhelum River and below average monsoon flows in the Jhelum and Chenab river systems. Mangla received 29,800 cusecs on August 19, down from 30,100 cusecs, while releases stood at 7,000 cusecs.
Tarbela reached its maximum level of 1,550 feet on August 9 and recorded inflows and outflows of 234,000 cusecs each on August 19. Chashma held 0.284 million acre feet against its capacity of 0.311 million acre feet, with its water level at 648 feet compared with a maximum of 649 feet.
The Chenab was also recording weaker flows than expected, with inflows of 73,000 cusecs at Head Marala against outflows of 47,800 cusecs. The Kabul River was contributing another 30,900 cusecs to the river system.
An official of the Indus River System Authority said water inflows during this year’s monsoon have remained below the average recorded over the past 10 years. With Tarbela full and Chashma nearly full, Mangla is now the major reservoir with substantial capacity still available if Jhelum inflows improve.
The bigger concern for water managers is how much of the stored water will remain when Rabi begins on October 1. Reservoir levels are expected to decline after August 20 as water releases continue to meet the irrigation needs of Kharif crops.
The situation could become more important because Kharif sowing was delayed this year after water arrived late in rivers and reservoirs. If the season extends, farmers may need irrigation supplies for longer, increasing pressure on reservoir stocks before the start of Rabi.
The IRSA official said the availability of water for Rabi would depend largely on how much is released from reservoirs between the end of August and the completion of the Kharif crop. Authorities will also consider water available in rivers, streams and other channels, including additional supplies generated by recent floods, when assessing the final water position for the Rabi season.
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