An intensifying El Niño pattern set an all-time temperature high in a key Pacific zone in September and could help make this year the hottest globally on record, the European Union’s climate monitor has warned.
The development has raised concerns in Pakistan, where El Niño-driven shifts in weather patterns can disrupt the monsoon, trigger droughts and worsen heatwaves, threatening agriculture and water supplies.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said sea surface temperatures in the El Niño monitoring region of the Pacific, known as Nino3.4, reached an all-time high of 29.70 degrees Celsius last month.
This exceeded the peak temperatures of previously strong El Niño events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Global average sea surface temperatures also hit a record 21.05 degrees Celsius for September, topping the previous high of 20.92 for the same month in 2023.
Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said this year’s El Niño, which emerged in June, is very exceptional, though it is too early to say whether it is the strongest ever observed.
Experts have warned that this El Niño, combined with human-induced climate change, could make 2027 the hottest year on record as heat stored in the Pacific is released into the atmosphere.
The weather phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, driving world temperatures higher the year after its peak.
But Buontempo said even 2026 could turn out to be a record breaker as this El Niño builds toward its peak.
After a record-breaking August, the world experienced its second-hottest September ever observed, with surface air temperatures averaging 16.27 degrees Celsius.
The warmer conditions could intensify extreme weather across South Asia, including Pakistan, where vulnerable communities and farming regions remain highly exposed to climate-linked disruption.
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