The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) expects its foreign exchange reserves to grow by $3.5 billion by June 2027, taking them to $25 billion from around $21.5 billion now.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed shared the projection on Monday at his post-monetary policy press conference, after the central bank raised the policy rate by 50 basis points to 12 percent.
$23 Billion by December
According to the SBP, reserves are expected to reach $23 billion by December 2026 before climbing to $25 billion by June 2027.
The governor said the recovery in reserves has mostly come from dollar purchases in the market, not from new borrowing. He reminded that Pakistan’s reserves had dropped below $3 billion in February 2023 before they started to recover.
Last week, SBP reserves stood just under $22 billion.
Ahmed stressed that keeping up the pace of reserve building is important for economic stability.
Growth Forecast and Rate Hike
The central bank expects the economy to grow between 3.5 and 4.5 percent in the current fiscal year.
The rate hike from 11.5 percent to 12 percent comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, rising energy prices, and fears that geopolitical tensions could push up global commodity prices.
The SBP blamed the worsening inflation outlook and the need to keep inflation expectations in check.
Risks Remain
The reserve projection is not risk-free. High global commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions, and supply constraints could all affect the target.
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