The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved an 11-year power generation and transmission plan involving around $58 billion in investment through 2035, despite major reservations raised by all three members of the regulator.
NEPRA approved the Integrated System Plan 2025 through a 45-page decision, subject to the regulator’s observations being addressed. The members, including the chairman, recorded more than 12 pages of dissenting or separate advisory notes on the plan.
The members questioned the inclusion and exclusion of major projects and raised concerns over the plan bypassing the Council of Common Interests, the constitutional forum responsible for matters including national energy policy and planning.
The plan adopts a low-growth business-as-usual scenario as its reference case for generation expansion. It assumes average GDP growth of 3.52 percent and provides for 26,045 MW of additional generation capacity, including 17,485 MW already committed and 8,560 MW optimized.
After the retirement of 2,577 MW of existing capacity, total installed generation capacity is projected to reach 62,657 MW. The plan includes 8,120 MW of net metering, while the estimated cost of additional generation capacity stands at $47.08 billion.
Transmission investments are estimated at $10.65 billion over the planning period. This includes $4.6 billion for ongoing or committed projects and around $6.05 billion for new transmission expansion projects.
The transmission plan includes power evacuation schemes, network reinforcements, new extra-high-voltage substations, transformer expansions and voltage control facilities. It also provides for a 40 MW on-site power plant for the Gwadar and Makran region amid disruption to electricity imports from Iran.
NEPRA rejected a proposed $900 million investment in battery energy storage systems until a detailed technical and economic study establishes their need, optimal capacity, operational use and cost effectiveness.
The regulator also raised concerns over contradictory positions from the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) and Power Planning and Monitoring Company regarding the plan’s impact on consumer electricity tariffs. It directed that the impact on consumer-end tariffs be properly calculated and included in the main plan.
PPMC has projected that the consumer-end base tariff could rise to Rs. 37.28 per unit by 2035 from Rs. 34 per unit in 2024 to 2025.
NEPRA also criticized ISMO for disclaiming responsibility for the accuracy, authenticity, and completeness of the data and projections used in preparing the plan, saying such issues required attention before full implementation.
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