The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent at its 14 September 2026 monetary policy meeting, according to Arif Habib Limited (AHL).
An AHL survey showed 87.5 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to remain unchanged, while 12.5 percent expect a 50-basis-point increase.
| MPC Meeting Date | Monetary Policy Statement & Information Compendium | Analyst Briefing Slide Deck | Post-MPC Press Conference | MPC Minutes – Week Ending2 | Monetary Policy Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27-Jul-26 | 27-Jul-26 | 28-Jul-26 | 27-Jul-26 | 21-Aug-26 | 10-Aug-26 |
| 14-Sep-26 | 14-Sep-26 | 15-Sep-26 | – | 09-Oct-26 | – |
| 26-Oct-26 | 26-Oct-26 | 27-Oct-26 | 26-Oct-26 | 20-Nov-26 | – |
| 14-Dec-26 | 14-Dec-26 | 15-Dec-26 | – | 08-Jan-27 | – |
| 25-Jan-27 | 25-Jan-27 | 26-Jan-27 | 25-Jan-27 | 19-Feb-27 | 08-Feb-27 |
| 08-Mar-27 | 08-Mar-27 | 09-Mar-27 | – | 02-Apr-27 | – |
| 26-Apr-27 | 26-Apr-27 | 27-Apr-27 | 26-Apr-27 | 21-May-27 | – |
| 17-Jun-27 | 17-Jun-27 | 18-Jun-27 | – | 12-Jul-27 | – |
Math Ahead of Decision
Pakistan’s current account deficit narrowed 38 percent year-on-year to $328 million in July, while remittances increased 13 percent to $3.6 billion. The country also recorded a primary fiscal surplus of 2.9 percent of GDP in FY26, above the IMF target.
Inflation has increased, with average CPI inflation reaching 10.18 percent in the first two months of FY27 compared with 3.56 percent a year earlier. However, SBP is likely to assess whether the increase becomes broad-based and persistent before changing rates.
Growth also remains supportive. Large-scale manufacturing grew around 5 percent in FY26, its strongest performance in about four years.
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