Pakistan could face a wheat shortfall of up to 3 million tons that may force the government to spend around $1.2 billion on imports unless urgent policy measures are introduced before the upcoming Rabi season, according to the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI).
PKI President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar issued the warning at a press conference and called on federal and provincial governments to take immediate steps to support wheat production and protect food security.
Khokhar said ineffective government policies over the past three years had severely weakened domestic wheat production and caused an estimated Rs. 2,200 billion loss to farmers. He said the situation had been further aggravated by global disruptions, including the Gulf conflict that began on February 28, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia Ukraine war.
According to the PKI, higher diesel prices, increased tube well electricity tariffs and longer international shipping times have raised production and import costs. The organization warned that without corrective measures, Pakistan could face a major wheat supply gap and a substantial foreign exchange burden.
The PKI called on the government to immediately restore the wheat support price to Rs. 4,702 per 40 kilograms. The organization estimates that farmers currently face a net production cost of Rs. 3,761 per 40 kilograms and said the proposed support price, including a standard 25 percent profit margin, would provide an incentive to bring fallow land back into cultivation and target a wheat harvest of 31 million tons.
The organization urged the prime minister and the minister for National Food Security to officially announce the wheat procurement policy and restore the support price by the end of August. It said farmers need sufficient time to plan their cultivation ahead of the Rabi season.
The PKI also called for any future fertilizer subsidies to be based on nutrients and extended to all phosphatic fertilizers rather than being limited to DAP. It cited the Economic Coordination Committee’s March 2022 decision, which included all phosphatic fertilizer grades, and said nearly 80 percent of farmers use alternatives such as Nitrophos, TSP, SSP, MAP, NP, NPS and NPK fertilizers.
The organization warned that restricting subsidies to DAP could encourage black market speculation and lead to unnecessary foreign exchange spending on DAP imports. It said local supplies of alternative phosphatic fertilizers are already sufficient to meet the requirements of the 2026 to 27 crop cycle.
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