Global oil prices fell sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump said he had called off a planned military strike on Iran, but similar trends seen in past weeks suggest Pakistan might not see any/much relief, regardless.
Worldwide, fuel stocks go up and down by the hour, but fuel pumps in Pakistan follow a complex formula.
Our research showed that since the Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) started daily fuel updates on July 17, global oil prices have closed deep in red at least 5 times.
| Date | WTI Move |
|---|---|
| July 22 | Below $80 |
| July 24 | $85-90 |
| July 28 | Below $85 |
| July 29 | Below $83 |
| August 3 | Decline more than 6% to below $80 after Trump paused Iran strikes |
Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped more than 6 percent to $79.31 per barrel, slipping below the $80 mark. Brent crude also declined about 5 percent to $83.42 per barrel.
Trump said he postponed the strike claiming that Iran wanted to talk again. Iranian officials have so far rejected such reports.
Despite the latest decline in international crude prices, Pakistani consumers are unlikely to see much relief. Let it be known that pump owners receive a set rupee amount per litre sold, which does not change based on the fluctuating retail price of fuel per day.
“The dealer margin is a fixed rupee-per-litre rate determined and frozen by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) and OGRA. It is only modified through specific statutory notifications, usually separated by months or years,” a pump owner on the condition of anonymity told ProPakistani.
Before the daily rate routine started, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said the move will ensure that changes in global oil prices are passed directly to consumers. The impact remains shared one-way so far. Over the past three weeks, petrol has gone up by Rs. 25.32/litre and diesel by Rs. 69.05/litre (not counting 3 August, which is today).
OGRA has mostly kept petroleum rates largely in a minuscule Rs. 1-3 adjustment bracket despite several sharp slippages in global oil markets.
Unless the government passes on the benefit soon, further drops in crude prices today, tomorrow, or anytime this month may have little immediate impact on fuel prices in Pakistan.
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