El Nino is expected to strengthen further before peaking in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950, the United Nations’ weather agency warned.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the weather pattern would likely bring above-average temperatures across much of the world and alter rainfall patterns, raising the risk of drought in some regions and flooding in others.
Its forecast, based on assessments from 13 leading meteorological centers, indicates a nearly 100 percent chance that El Nino will persist through February 2027.
Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are forecast to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal during October–December. That would exceed the previous record of 2.6°C set during the 2015–2016 event.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Nino releases heat stored in the ocean rather than adding new heat to the planet. With ocean temperatures already at record levels, more heat is available to enter the atmosphere.
El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warm, affecting winds and rainfall worldwide. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months.
The effects are already being felt in Central America, where drought is killing crops and animals. Global temperatures could rise further after the event peaks, as its warming impact usually follows later.
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