El Nino Expected to Cause 451,000 More Deaths Worldwide
This year’s powerful El Nino weather pattern could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it pushes global temperatures higher, according to projections from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.
The warming phenomenon, declared in June, is expected to peak later this year and could become the strongest El Nino on record, intensifying the effects of human-driven climate change.
Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, resulting in 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year.
Developing countries are expected to bear much of the projected death toll. The Sahel region of Africa could record an additional 66,800 heat-related deaths, including nearly half in Nigeria.
Indonesia could see around 19,300 additional deaths, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively record another 19,400. The projections also include 15,800 additional deaths in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
The researchers assessed temperature-related mortality across 24,378 regions and combined the findings with long-range weather forecasts.
The report comes after the United Nations warned that El Nino poses a significant threat to global health.
Researchers said the projections could help governments prepare heat warnings, cooling centers and hydration stations to protect vulnerable populations.
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